Project selection Under Risk and Uncertainty

Making capital investment decisions in banking isn’t always straightforward. Risks and uncertainties—like economic changes, new regulations, or shifting customer behavior—can all impact whether a project delivers the expected returns. So, how can banks confidently evaluate investments when the future is unclear? Let’s explore some practical tools and approaches that can help. Why Risk and Uncertainty…

Simulation Analysis in Capital Budgeting

Executive Summary Simulation analysis is one of the most advanced tools in capital budgeting for quantifying risk and uncertainty. By modeling a wide range of possible scenarios and outcomes, it helps financial managers evaluate projects more realistically than traditional techniques like sensitivity or scenario analysis. This article introduces the principles, process, advantages, limitations, and practical…

The Hillier Model: Quantifying Risk in Capital Budgeting

The Hillier Model provides a quantitative approach to assess project risk in capital budgeting by calculating the standard deviation of expected cash flows. Developed by F.S. Hillier, this method considers the correlation between cash flows across years and enables more precise evaluation of a project’s uncertainty. This document analyzes the model, its mathematical foundations, practical…

Strategic Risk Management in Capital Budgeting: A Guide for Corporate Decision-Makers

Capital budgeting determines the long-term direction of an organization’s investments. Integrating strategic risk management into this process enables leaders to safeguard capital, optimize performance, and strengthen resilience in uncertain markets. This paper outlines the key risks, risk management frameworks, integration strategies, and the role of technology in informed decision-making. Introduction In today’s complex financial environment,…

Scenario Analysis – A Strategic Guide in Capital Budgeting Decisions

IntroductionScenario analysis is a strategic decision-making tool used to explore and evaluate a range of possible future situations. In banking and finance, it helps institutions prepare for uncertainties, manage risks, and identify opportunities by considering various assumptions and market conditions. What is Scenario Analysis? Scenario analysis examines multiple plausible futures—typically including a best-case, worst-case, and…